Pediatrics
META ANALYSIS
● Meta-analysis
Global neonatal HSV incidence 8.2 per 100k births, rising 3.5% annually; nHSV-1 proportion increasing
Journal of global health
Published March 30, 2026
Aldien Arwa Saed, Harfouche Manale, Alareeki Asalah, Chemaitelly Hiam, Abu-Raddad Laith J
PubMed ↗
DOI ↗
This systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the global epidemiology, regional variations, and temporal trends of neonatal herpes simplex virus (nHSV) infection, caused by HSV-1 or HSV-2. The study, conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines, reviewed PubMed, Embase, and national surveillance reports through 12 December 2024. It included 143 relevant publications from three of the six WHO regions, providing 140 nHSV incidence rate measures and 103 proportions of incident nHSV-1 vs. nHSV-2 cases. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled mean outcomes, and meta-regression analyses assessed associations, temporal trends, and potential sources of heterogeneity. The global pooled and regional population-weighted mean incidence rate was 8.2 (95% CI = 5.9-10.7) per 100,000 live births. Regional incidence was highest in the Americas (13.3 per 100,000; 95% CI = 9.9-17.2), followed by the European Region (5.2 per 100,000; 95% CI = 3.4-7.3) and the Western Pacific Region (2.9 per 100,000; 95% CI = 2.2-3.6). Globally, nHSV-1 and nHSV-2 accounted for pooled and weighted means of 47.3% (95% CI = 39.5-55.0) and 52.8% (95% CI = 45.2-60.5) of cases, respectively. The highest nHSV-1 proportion was in the Western Pacific Region (57.7%; 95% CI = 49.2-66.1), while the highest nHSV-2 proportion was in the Region of the Americas (60.5%; 95% CI = 55.8-65.1). Meta-regression analyses showed an annual increase of 3.5% (95% CI = 1.5-5.6) in nHSV incidence rate, alongside a yearly 1.4% (95% CI = 0.9-1.9) increase in the proportion of nHSV-1 cases and a 1.1% (95% CI = 0.6-1.6) decrease in the proportion of nHSV-2 cases. The study concludes that nHSV affects approximately one in 10,000 newborns, with regional variations and a rising incidence rate, and that the increasing dominance of nHSV-1 over nHSV-2 reflects shifting HSV epidemiology.
A new global review shows a concerning trend: a dangerous infection in newborns called neonatal herpes is on the rise. This infection, caused by the herpes simplex virus, is known for its high risk of death and long-term health problems. The analysis found that, on average, about 8 out of every 100,000 newborns are affected, which is roughly 1 in 10,000. But the risk isn't the same everywhere. It's highest in the Americas, where the rate is over 13 cases per 100,000 live births. In Europe, it's about 5 per 100,000, and in the Western Pacific region, it's just under 3 per 100,000. The study also reveals a shift in which virus is to blame. Globally, the two types, HSV-1 and HSV-2, cause nearly equal shares of cases. However, HSV-1 is becoming more common each year, while HSV-2 is becoming slightly less common. Most importantly, the overall number of cases is increasing by about 3.5% annually. This means more families worldwide are facing this serious threat to their newborn's life and long-term health.
What this means for you: Neonatal herpes cases are rising globally, with the virus type causing it shifting over time.
View Original Abstract ↓
BACKGROUND: Neonatal herpes simplex virus (nHSV) infection, caused by HSV-1 or HSV-2, is a global health concern due to its high mortality and long-term morbidity. In this study, we assessed nHSV global epidemiology, regional variations, and temporal trends.
METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of PubMed, Embase, and national surveillance reports through 12 December 2024, and reported findings in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We used random-effects meta-analysis to estimate pooled mean outcomes and meta-regression analyses to assess associations, temporal trends, and potential sources of heterogeneity.
RESULTS: We identified 143 relevant publications from three of the six World Health Organization regions, providing 140 nHSV incidence rate measures and 103 proportions of incident nHSV-1 vs. nHSV-2 cases. The global pooled and regional population-weighted mean incidence rate was 8.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.9-10.7) per 100 000 live births. Incidence rate was highest in the Americas (13.3 cases per 100 000 live births; 95% CI = 9.9-17.2), followed by the European Region (5.2 cases per 100 000 live births; 95% CI = 3.4-7.3) and the Western Pacific Region (2.9 cases per 100 000 live births; 95% CI = 2.2-3.6). Globally, nHSV-1 and nHSV-2 accounted for pooled and weighted means of 47.3% (95% CI = 39.5-55.0) and 52.8% (95% CI = 45.2-60.5) of cases, respectively. The highest nHSV-1 proportion was in the Western Pacific Region (57.7%; 95% CI = 49.2-66.1), while the highest nHSV-2 proportion was in the Region of the Americas (60.5%; 95% CI = 55.8-65.1). Meta-regression analyses showed an annual increase of 3.5% (95% CI = 1.5-5.6) in nHSV incidence rate, alongside a yearly 1.4% (95% CI = 0.9-1.9) increase in the proportion of nHSV-1 cases and a 1.1% (95% CI = 0.6-1.6) decrease in the proportion of nHSV-2 cases.
CONCLUSIONS: nHSV affects approximately one in 10 000 newborns, with regional variations and a rising incidence rate. The increasing dominance of nHSV-1 over nHSV-2 reflects shifting HSV epidemiology.